Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas

by Marcus Noland

Book Overview

On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden--and possibly nuclear-armed--totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises:...

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0881322784
• ISBN13: 9780881322781
• Release Date: June 2000
• Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economic
• Length: 456 Pages
• Weight: 1.33 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.8" x 6.0" x 9.0"

Customer Reviews

President Bush should read this book

Winston Churchill described the Soviet Union as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma," but then again, unlike Marcus Noland, Churchill never visited North Korea.South Korea has risen from the ashes of the war to become a modern country. North Korea faces a famine. (My church and many others are involved in famine relief there.) If the North Koreans opened up their system they could catch up with South Korea -- afterall, they are all Koreans. As it is, they rely on selling missiles to countries like Pakistan, worsening the Pakistani confrontation with India, and creating headaches for the US and other countries.This book examines this geopolitical hot spot. It analyzes the missile and nuclear issue, the famine, and the financial crisis in South Korea. It then considers three scenarios for the future of the Korean peninsula. The economics can get a bit heavy going, but it is not difficult to follow the thread of the argument. This book is particularly good on the issue of how developments in the North could affect political and economic developments in the South. It would behoove President Bush and his advisors to read this book.

Exploiting the post-communist countries experiences ...

The central issues of this book are not only of importance to the Koreans themselves but to the United States, Russia, China and Japan. One of its great strengths is to place the Korean experience not only in the context of Asia, but importantly, in the context of the experience of Eastern European countries.The case of North Korea might be considered the pupil exceeding the teacher: North Korea took central planning and political repression to extremes never achieved in the Soviet Union. Now it has a large industrial sector and missiles, but it cannot feed itself. The experiences of Russia, Belarus, Romania (not just China)are quite important to understanding the future of North Korea. The book uses good analytical models to understand the situation and does a very good job of exploiting the knowledge of Russian and other Eastern Bloc scholars' insight into North Korea.

First-rate analysis of a critical issue

This book is a delight - the author combines serious economic and political analysis with rich knowledge of institutions and history on the Korean peninsula. Moreover, he knows how to write. He makes sophisticated arguments seem easy. For readers concerned with the future of South and North Korea, this is essential reading. The book consists of a thorough overview of the current situation on the peninsula with a brief but insightful review of the historical processes that have brought us to this point. It distills in a accessible manner the vital insights from the author's formal models of the Korean economy. Most importantly, it weaves all of these different viewpoints into a coherent and persuasive story.

An insightful analysis of prospects on the Korean peninsula

By drawing on other-country parallels such as German unification, or the experiences of China and Vietnam as they re-engaged with the world community, "Avoiding the Apocalypse" provides interesting insights about N. Korea's future and the possible implications for the South. This book is unique among other N. Korea titles in that it is underpinned by rigorous economic analysis while, at the same time, exhibiting a sound understanding of geopolitical dynamics of the peninsula and of the interests of key player countries (S. Korea, Japan, US, China). The book presents a comprehensive analysis of N. Korea's economy and policies (past and present), and an assessment of future prospects for the Korea peninsula in light of several plausible alternative scenarios of policy developments in the North. "Avoiding the Apocalypse" contains a wealth and depth of information Mr. Noland has obviously acquired through his research and interactions with key economic, political and military personalities in North and South Korea, Japan, the US and China. I found this book to be very well written, and in a style accessible to a general educated readership. Unusually for such a weighty book, the text includes cross-cultural sayings (i.e. proverbs) and metaphors, in addition to insider quotes, that make the book an interesting read indeed. I recommend the book highly for anyone interested in a thorough review of N. Korea and in knowing what the current state of play is as regards N. Korea's integration into the world community of nations. If you're interested in a fresh and intellectually stimulating perspective on the events unfolding on the Korean peninsula, this is also the book for you.

this book will become the basic reference...

All of us have a few books that we keep near our desks as basic reference. This is just that kind of book. It is a comprehensive overview of political, economic, and security developments on the peninsula today. It is carefully argued and copiously researched. Excellent index.