Korea After Kim Jong-Il

by Marcus Noland

Book Overview

Today's North Korean regime embodies elements of both communism and Confucian dynasty, is sovereign with respect to only part of the divided Korean nation, is vulnerable to pressure from external powers, and confronts incipient internal demands for change, yielding an unusually broad set of possible transition paths and successor regimes. Such paths range from maintenance of the status quo to evolution, probably toward a more conventional form of...

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 088132373X
• ISBN13: 9780881323733
• Release Date: January 2004
• Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economic
• Length: 100 Pages
• Weight: 0.41 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.3" x 6.0" x 8.9"

Customer Reviews

A Hard Look At Korean Unification

Marcus Noland, in June 2000, wrote one of the better books, published by the Institute for International Economics, on the situation on the Korean peninsula, Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas. Now, as Volume 71 of that organization's "Policy Analyses in International Economics", is Noland's Korea After Kim Jong-il. It's a short, but dense read, and worth every graph and sentence in its 103 pages, of which 18 are the appendix, index, and references, and including four tables and four figures. It's an economic analysis, certainly, but Noland's unpretentious presentation is punctuated with glib remarks. As in Avoiding the Apocalypse, Noland offers alternative scenarios with supporting data and policy recommendations. Korea After Kim Jong-il in fact contains much of the same recommendations Noland suggested in his 2000 book, only more sharply focused on developments which occurred after 2000. Noland's recommendations are based on economic factors, not political or diplomatic ones. Unfortunately, these recommendations required the political cooperation of regional players and the United States to succeed, but in many cases, none of the players have even carried out the suggestions each could make unilaterally.The first issue Noland discusses is North Korea's probability to survive or collapse. Noland offers numerous sociological arguments for change from numerous sources. He also contrasts these theories with public polling data and anecdotal evidence from policy-makers. He concludes, that there is a consensus among important decision-makers and the public that North Korea will collapse even without external pressure, which is not supported by any cross-national economic data or sociological theory. This strange consensus is even more jarring considering, that South Korea's official policy is predicated on the North Korean regime's survival, until it is gradually integrated into the South's economy. Noland identifies three three likely future scenarios: cooperative engagement (Seoul's position), neo-cons' dream, and international embargo. On a timeline, cooperative engagement would ensure Pyongyang's survival for decades, the ne0-con's dream secenario would cause Pyongyang's collapse around the end of President Bush's second term, and an international embargo would cause collapse within two years. Noland stresses the economic and political damage, that either of the last two scenarios would cause to the South Korea. Finally, Noland recommends specific policies for South Korea. These suggestions are identical to the recommendations found in the 2000 book. This repetition highlights the stakes involved in the South's continuing reform, which Noland generally praises, even if he rightly acknowledges the failures. This last section is the most important focus of the book, because Noland believes the South Koreans should own their destiny. I accept this right until the point South Korea's messy politics leads to a serious cris in the re