Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

by Brian Michael Jenkins

According to a British intelligence report leaked to the press in 2007, al Qaeda operatives are planning a large-scale attack "on par with Hiroshima and Nagasaki." How likely is it that terrorists will develop the capability of such an attack? No one understands the nature of the threat posed by nuclear terrorism better than Brian Michael Jenkins--one of the world's most renowned experts on terrorism. For more than thirty years, he has been advising...

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 1591026563
• ISBN13: 9781591026563
• Release Date: September 2008
• Publisher: Prometheus Books
• Length: 457 Pages
• Weight: 1.55 lbs.
• Dimensions: 1.3" x 6.7" x 9.2"

Customer Reviews

Will Terrorists Go Nuclear

As usual for Brian Jenkins, this is a thorough book based upon Jenkins' more than 30 years of terrorism research. This particular book is a detailed dissection of the facts and beliefs involved in the discussion of the risk of nuclear terrorism. Martin - writing a textbook on Homeland Security Law.

A remarkable book on a terrifying topic -- STRONGLY recommended

I urge you to read this important book, and then share it with your local and national leaders. Brian Jenkins, a senior advisor at the RAND Corporation, has been studying the issue of nuclear terrorism since the early 1970s. In fact, he may be the world's leading expert on this terrifying topic. "Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?" has been endorsed by top intelligence experts on both sides of the political spectrum, as well as a Nobel Prize laureate and retired military leaders. Warning: This is not a work of sensationalism. Unlike so many "shock authors," Jenkins is even-handed and very careful with his words. He even criticizes his own earlier work, which is a rare thing in this age of reckless self-promotion. Here's the gist of Jenkins's argument: Nuclear "terror" and nuclear "terrorism" are two VERY different problems. One is emotional. The other is factual. If we base our policies on emotion, our nation will suffer through unnecessary fear and make poor decisions about security. As Jenkins states: "Al Qaeda is the first terrorist group to incite nuclear terror without actually possessing a nuclear weapon." Make no mistake: The distinction between "terror" and "terrorism" is absolutely critical to our national response, says Jenkins. Nuclear terror is fear based on what MIGHT happen. In contrast, nuclear terrorism is the actual historical record of specific terrorist ACTS involving nuclear materials -- plus an objective estimate of current terrorist capabilities. Jenkins leaves no stone unturned. He walks us through the history of nuclear terror going back to H.G. Wells' 1913 novel on the subject and continuing to the current day. It's a fascinating -- almost unbelievable -- trip. For example, I didn't know that Robert Oppenheimer (father of the U.S. atomic bomb) actually worked on this issue in the late 1940s and early 1950s. The result was his famous but still classified "Screwdriver Report." On a parallel track, Jenkins examines the history of actual terrorist acts involving nuclear materials -- everything from a love-triangle murder in Idaho Falls in 1961 to the Chechen radiological bomb planted in a Moscow park just a few years ago. He also reviews the rich history of black marketeering in nuclear materials, particularly in the former Soviet Union. Along the way, we learn a great deal about the difference between nuclear terror and nuclear terrorism. Topics include: -- Suitcase nukes -- The mysterious substance called "red mercury" -- Security procedures at Russian nuclear facilities -- Al Qaeda's attempts to secure nuclear and radiological weapons -- Pakistan's involvement in nuclear smuggling -- The great technical challenge of building a viable nuclear weapon from scratch At times, Jenkins' narrative repeats itself, but for the most part he's right on the money. Each major topic is placed within the cultural and historical framework of our times. For example, Jenkins examines the religious "end times" fever of our age in the contex

Offers a reasoned analysis based on known facts and will prove key to any military library

British intelligence reports al Qaeda is planning a large-scale nuclear attack - but are they capable of such? Author Brian Michael Jenkins is one of the world's foremost experts on terrorism, has been advising governments on the escalation of terrorist activity around the world, and here analyzes what terrorists care capable of in the nuclear arena. From political to psychological impact, this offers a reasoned analysis based on known facts and will prove key to any military library.

Essential reading on an essential security issue

Will terrorists go nuclear? That is the essential questioned posed by counterterrorism expert Brian Jenkins in a book of the same title. Jenkins has written a sobering and critical analysis of this question that spans over his decades of research on the topic. In fact, the book shares the title of a research paper Jenkins wrote over 30 years ago and it is that essay he uses as the entrance point for his observations. The issue of nuclear terrorism is one that has haunted policy makers, enriched movie producers, and fevered American apprehension for 30 years and the strength of Jenkins book is his categorical and tempered analysis of how each of these complex areas play into the nuclear terrorism debate. Playing the role of mythbuster, Jenkins dives deep to determine the seeding point for a large number of nuclear terrorism memes that have propagated over the past decade. Upon examination, Jenkins finds that some of the memes are just that, organic ideas that developed a life of their own or had strategic sponsorship by individuals who were in a position to benefit from the propagation of the meme. Readers should draw some comfort from the thoughtful analysis and debunking of some of our most terrifying concerns. In his analysis of terrorist motives, operational concepts and evolution Jenkins dissects the core issues in a way that few terrorism analysts can. This book will speak not only to his peers, but is very accessible to the general audience and it is this audience that Jenkins seems obligated to inform with this book. That assumption brings us to the final and most essential element of the book, which is Jenkins' differentiation between "nuclear terrorism" and "nuclear terror". Nuclear terrorism is the threat that must be addressed by Western democracies through sound counterterrorism and non-proliferation policies. Nuclear terror is the state of perpetual societal fear that is exploited to erode civil liberties and generate apprehension within democracies. Of course, the fundamental question is how much apprehension can we cope with before the fundamental components of our society become unrecognizable. Jenkins book is a highly recommended read for anyone interested in this essential subject and should be required reading for consumers of popular culture (the TV show 24, for example) that propagate the nuclear terrorism meme, or anyone who finds the concept of nuclear terrorism "terrifying".

Will the Terrorists Go Nuclear?

For several presidential elections the candidates have all said the greatest danger facing America is nuclear terrorism. Even now. But somehow, it isn't part of the discussion, perhaps because they don't know how to talk about it. This book by Brian Jenkins is not only comprehendive, compelling, and a great read, it provides a realistic analysis of the history of nuclear terror and nuclear terrosim, pointing out that the latter -- the threat of a nuclear attack -- has all terrorists have ever been able to accomplish. That threat, however, has a higher probability of doing danger to our values, our commitment to civil liberty, and all the important things America stands for in the world than the risk of an attack. Jenkins, who is an acknowledged expert in the field, provides a chapter that is as compelling as an episode of "24," running the scenario of what you would do if you were president and "A Brilliant Yellow Light" was seen over New York City. The book is a must for anyone seriously concerned about the danger of a nuclear attack, or the danger to our civil liberties of living in ignorance and fear. It should be part of the presidential debate, but won't be unless someone asks the candidates directly what they think.