The Great Depression of 1990

by Ravi Batra

Book Overview

Batra predicts that we are moving toward the greatest world-wide depression in history--and 1987's Black Monday may have been just the beginning. Batra's advice is easily accessible to all. He advises... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0671640224
• ISBN13: 9780671640224
• Release Date: January 1987
• Publisher: Simon & Schuster
• Length: 235 Pages
• Weight: 5.40 lbs.

Customer Reviews

Lessons in Economic Analysis

Ravi Batra Ph,D. is a professor of economics at SMU and the author of books on International Trade. This 1987 book predicted a great worldwide depression in 1990 by analyzing business and economic cycles since 1700 (a recession every decade and a major depression every third or sixth decade). The symptoms are the mushrooming federal budget deficits, trade deficits, and the increasing concentration of wealth among the rich. Did this prediction fail to occur? Yes, but the government and economy are dynamic and can be modified to avoid foreseen problems. What they can't do is to reverse the plundering and exploitation of the population that leads to a depression when the people are impoverished. This is an informative and educational book. It should teach that projecting future results based on past experiences is not always correct. The `Foreword' says analysts can be divided into those who seek explanations in cyclical regularities, and those who seek explanations in unique events (p.13). Each has strengths and weaknesses. History combines both elements. Batra believes depressions can be controlled by social policies designed to stop undue concentrations of wealth (p.15). Inflation is caused by an increased money supply, or by a rapid change in value for a commodity. Lester C. Thurow says the Federal Reserve stopped attempting to control the money supply in 1982 because of new money market instruments. [Hasn't that changed?] The `Preface' says that there was no severe economic crisis since WW II (p.17). Batra believes that another economic cataclysm is imminent and explains why (economic data, sociopolitical ideas, historical trends). There must be major changes in government policy to avoid another great depression (p.18). Batra believes events repeat and things move in cycles (p.20). This book will identify and interpret these cycles, and explain how they affect economic fortunes. Batra will explain the four cycles of money, inflation, regulation, and depression that have gone on for 200 years (p.21). Chapter 2 expounds on "Sarkar's Law", a theory about human history. [Idealistic and oversimplified generalizations?] It ignores the Global Cooling of the 14th century and the 6th century dimming. Both caused a shortfall in agricultural output and affected society. Chapter 3 traces the cycles of money growth from 1770 to 1970. The variations in money supply and money growth accompany economic fluctuations. The rate of inflation follows money growth (Chapter 4). Economic regulation by the government accompanies money growth and inflation (Chapter 5). Regulatory bodies expanded in the 1970s as it did in the 1940s (p.90). Money or wealth determines how the state governs its people (p.93). Wars stimulate money growth and regulation (p.95). Failed predictions are the occupational diseases of economists (p.96). "An extreme concentration of wealth" causes depressions (p.97). This topic is banned among economists "and those in power" (p.98). Chapter 6 not

What Goes Around Long Waves Around

Ah, what difference 18 years makes. It was pure hubris to call the date the way this author did. The ability to stagger along had more power than expected. But the long wave will not be denied, self destructive action of the financial ruling class will not cease, the inventiveness with which the financial gurus will distort the relationship between symbolic wealth and real goods and services is inevitable, in the end the guiding hand heads to the cliff, near to the edge, and finally over it. And then the climb back up commences until the lessons become unlearned. It's the raw market stupid...how much do you like it now?

He Nailed It!

Regardless of what others have written, this was a correct prediction. While Donald Trump was going insolvent in the late nineties and at the same time, pushing his con job, The Art of The Deal, Batra was spot on! Perhaps some of you don't remember the $250 billion Savings and Loan gov't bail out. Housing prices in Southern California crashed 40% from 1989-1995. Pay attention to wise words from 1986.

the early 1990s recession was pretty bad!

Batra predicted in 1985 that a grotesquely unequal distribution of wealth would cause a depression in 1990. Establishment economists mocked his book. Yet, lo and behold, there was a recession in 1990 which lingered for quite some time. Even after the slow and weak recovery, real wages for the bottom 80% of the labor force did not start to rise until late 1996. Batra combines an interesting eastern theory of social cycles with modern economic theory. His reforms are fundamental and humane. He basically argues that inequality causes purchasing power to decline, thus precipitating recessions and depressions. Batra also notes that all the standard modern economic theories -- from Keynesianism to supply-sideism to monetarism -- have failed to rid the world of poverty and instability. He argues convincingly that these theories only address the symptoms of the problem, and not the root cause. All in all, Batra made a bold forecast which pretty much was on the mark. His reforms are interesting also, for they combine the best features of dynamic capitalism with the best features of egalitarian socialism.

A look at an interesting and prophetic book

Batra argues convincingly that civilizations rise and fall in economic as well as social cycles. The overriding case is made for a more even distribution of the world's resources in order to combat the dangers of severe recessions. The study is well researched and examines an interesting eastern philosophical theory coupled with the changing face of the capitalist system. It is hard to disagree with a man who predicted the 90's recession back in 1985 when things were "booming".