Powerful Times: Rising To the Challenge of Our Uncertain World

By Eamonn Kelly

Book Overview

Eamonn Kelly's imagination is grave, prehensile, and informed by a splendid breadth of context. This is an absolutely fascinating book, and one I look forward to re-reading at the earliest... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0131855204
• ISBN13: 9780131855205
• Release Date: January 2005
• Publisher: Wharton School Pub
• Length: 341 Pages
• Weight: 1.35 lbs.
• Dimensions: 9.0" x 1.3" x 6.5"

Customer Reviews

Brilliant: A beacon to light the way and a compass showing the general direction of things to come

Few times does a book have such a powerful effect on me. Not coincidentally is this 2005 book by Wharton School Publishing titled "Powerful Times". The book is written by the CEO of the Global Business Network, a group self-described as a "future-oriented network and consulting firm". Any assumptions you come to the book with will be strongly challenged, not to convince you to steer left or right, but rather to open up your mind to one clear and indisputable truth: these are changing times, and we might as well realize that, in order to be able to deal with the world we are embarked on and the world of the coming decade. Kelly presents the reader with a deep yet easy-to-follow set of trends, most of which are represented by opposite forces pulling in different directions. Chances are you may identify yourself with one of the forces in most of the trends, yet Kelly's effectiveness lies in his ability to present all forces in a very balanced way, which allows you to open yourself to what others may be thinking. Once all the trends have been covered, he goes into what he considers to be the three most likely scenarios to take place in the coming decade, depending on the outcome of two basic yet fundamental crossroads we are in the process of going through. He emphasizes that no single scenario should be expected to prevail in a unique way, but rather to dominate the scene, "sprinkled" with elements from the other scenarios. Finally, he provides the reader with an extensive framework for him to assess his place and that of his company in this new world we're entering. This framework, along with a handful of additional tools and resources, is provided through the book's web site at www.PowerfulTimes.net. I cannot do less but give the book five shining stars for shedding a brilliant light on some of today's impossibly contradictory issues, and giving us readers a tool with which to steer through the troubled waters of the coming decade.

Looking at the future by examining the present...

There are so many changes and forces at work today in society, and it's hard to see where they might lead. And for everyone who paints a rosy picture about something like nanotechnology, there's someone else who thinks the very same thing foretells the doom of the human race. Eamonn Kelly does a very nice job in looking at both sides in the book Powerful Times - Rising To The Challenge Of Our Uncertain World. Contents: Section 1 - What's Happening? - Predicting the Present: History Unleashed; Clarity and Craziness; Secular and Sacred; Power and Vulnerability; Technology Acceleration and Pushback; Intangible and Physical Economies; People and Planet Section 2 - What If? - Changing for the Challenges Ahead: Governance; Innovation Section 3 - What's Next? - Scenarios for the Next Decade: Three Snapshots of the Future Section 4 - So What? - Acting in an Era of Transformation: Creating Our New Future Endnotes; Afterword: Using This Book in Your Life and Work This is one of those books that forces you to examine both sides of the coin... your position and the flip side. Section 1 is built on contrasts. For instance, In Secular and Sacred, Kelly looks at how the resurgence of religion and spirituality in society has caused people to examine what's really important to them. On the other hand, it's also deeply divided countries and cultures as radical fundamentalism is used to drive followers and forcibly export beliefs. Depending on which side you stand, you'll easily identify with part of the chapter. While tempting to just write off the other half as "he's wrong", the value lies in letting those alternative views moderate your stance and open up your field of vision. Same with the chapter on economies. While it's important to have a market-driven economy that generally benefits society as a whole, those gains can often come at the cost of maintaining a "low wage economy" in developing countries. As a result, the gap between the haves and have nots continues to increase, trapping ever-increasing parts of the population in a poverty cycle that is hard to break. While there are no "single right answers" any more, Kelly lays out a number of alternate outcomes that might occur given the current trends that are in place. It's impossible to tell just what outcome might win out, but it's helpful to start thinking beyond the "here and now" to see how our actions might determine our future. An enjoyable read while also provoking thought and self-examination, both personally and as a corporate whole...

An Uncertain World Creates Challenges

More than 500 years ago, Niccolo Machiavelli, Florence's Second Chancellor, was asked to investigate why Pandolfo Petrucci, the Lord of nearby Siena, was so inconsistent in his behavior. Machiavelli was impressed by his explanation. "Wishing to make as few mistakes as possible, I conduct my government day by day and arrange my affairs hour by hour, because the times are more powerful than our brains." His response resonates today. The world changes at what seems to be an unprecedented rate. Each shift and rift creates profound anxiety and deep confusion. Yet the worlds systems, be they financial, technological, social, cultural or political, continue to evolve and develop at an accelerating pace. Eamonn Kelly, the CEO of the strategy consultancy Global Business Network, offers seven "dynamic tensions that he believes will reshape human life in the coming decades. They are: * Prosperity and Decline * Power and Vulnerability * Intangible and Physical * Clarity and Craziness * Acceleration and Pushback * People and Planet * Secular and Sacred. The "either/or" thinking that worked in the past, he postulates, is no longer effective. The ability to think in terms of "both/and" will be valuable to discerning in the future what is occurring around us. "The test of a first-rate intelligence," wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald in words that could not ring truer today "is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." Many of us fail the first part. We cannot hold two opposing ideas. If Kelly's thesis is correct, this is an ability we will have to quickly acquire if we are to make sense of an increasingly complex and confusing world.

Finding Clarity (and Growth) in an Age of Transformation

The world has always been uncertain. But, says Eamonn Kelly, not like this. Technological, financial, social, economic, cultural, and political systems are accelerating towards ever-greater complexity and interdependence. The changes we see are profoundly paradoxical: as humans, we seek patterns, but our simplifications obscure more than they clarify, and our "either/or" mindsets risk catastrophe. No single actor - no person, institution, ideology, marketplace, religion, region, or nation - is powerful enough to control the future. Meanwhile, deep, fundamental dynamics may be unraveling much of what we've taken for granted since the Enlightenment dawned some 400 years ago. In his new book, Kelly aims to help leaders make sense of this extraordinary moment in history and safely navigate its shoals. That's no small goal. But Kelly brings a powerful tool to bear: the scenario planning approach GBN has used to help hundreds of companies and governments manage the future. Scenarios organize perceptions about the future into stories that are easy to understand and work with. They make it easier to consider alternate futures and reflect diverse perspectives. By recognizing the potential for sharp discontinuities, they encourage decision makers to consider the unthinkable - invaluable in an era when the unthinkable is occurring with frightening regularity. To frame his scenarios, Kelly identifies seven "dynamic tensions": paradoxical forces he sees reshaping the world. For instance, the secular worldview continues to spread, largely driven by "rational" business practices. But, of course, fundamentalism is also resurging - from the madrasahs of Pakistan to the megachurches of Texas and California. Progress in computing, biotech, and nanotech is accelerating: these fields are becoming "mutually catalytic" and promising to transform human beings at the most fundamental levels. Meanwhile, the "pushback" grows, creating surprising alliances. (Will Bill Joy's views on nanotech converge with George Bush's views on stem cell research?) From a geopolitical standpoint, while the U.S. is well-positioned to retain military dominance, it faces frightening new vulnerabilities, both perceived and real. Meanwhile, writes Kelly, overall global prosperity appears to be widening. But 21 countries lost ground in the 1990s - and, even in the developed world, millions feel more vulnerable than they have in generations. Some of Kelly's dynamic tensions are less familiar, but also vitally important. For example, while value will continue to migrate towards the intangible - services, experiences, relationships - improving physical infrastructure will take on ever-greater urgency. The world is growing more transparent, thanks to a deepening web of computers, networks, sensors, and surveillance systems. However, "conspiracy theories and falsehoods will travel the world instantaneously," and the technologies of transparency will also promote more sophisticated theft and

Fantastic

I loved this book. Kelly's work is an eloquent and thoughtful analysis of the `dynamic tensions' that are shaping our world. Instead of a simplification of the future, this book offers a framework that reveals the complex dualities in evolving risks and opportunitities on a global scale. It really broadened my perspective on the world and changed the way that I think about my future-and more importantly our future. This book has already sparked many intriguing conversations with colleagues and friends! Highly recommended.