Understanding Probability: Chance Rules in Everyday Life

by Henk Tijms

Book Overview

Like it or not, chance plays a big part in our lives. Every day we face situations where the result is uncertain, and, perhaps without realizing it, we guess about the likelihood of one outcome or... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0521540364
• ISBN13: 9780521540360
• Release Date: August 2004
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Length: 390 Pages
• Weight: 1.20 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.9" x 6.1" x 9.0"

Customer Reviews

An excellent introduction to probability for the mathematically advanced

While the examples illustrating probability are taken from everyday life, they are not presented at a level that the general reader can understand. The later examples of continuous distributions involve complex integrals, including multiple integrations. While some short computer programs are included, surprisingly, they are written in Pascal, a programming language that is almost obsolete in education. If you can handle the advanced mathematics, then you will find this an excellent book for the study of basic probability events. As the historical record affirms, there is no area of mathematics that is more capable of stumping even advanced mathematicians than probability. In many cases, the "intuitive" answer is wrong because the intuition is improperly applied. The best example of this is "The Monty Hall problem." It is modeled over the "big deal of the day" in the television game show "Let's Make a Deal." There are three doors, one of which contains a very valuable prize and the other two duds. You are given the opportunity to pick one and after your selection, the contents of one of the others, which is one of the duds, is revealed. Then, you are given the opportunity to alter your selection to the other one. Tijms works through this problem several different ways, conclusively demonstrating that the odds are in fact better if you alter your selection. A large number of other examples of probabilistic reasoning, both correct and fallacious, are given and worked out in complete detail. Problems are included in the chapters and solutions to the odd-numbered ones are included in an appendix. This book is an excellent choice for advanced courses in probability for math majors who have completed the calculus sequence.

A reader from Mexico City

Highly recommended. I could not put this book down. Working through the colorful problems in this book is a great way to learn and apply basic probability principles. I've have never seen a probability book with such good examples.

A great introductory probability book

Henk Tijms is one of the world's leading experts in applied probability. This book is a wonderful introduction to probability theory. The second half of book a requires basic differntial calculus but beyond that only high school algebra is required. First half of book motivates probabilistic thinking through many fascinating examples and problems. Second half of book fills in the rigor. What sets the book apart is that unlike most books every problem and example are interesting. Another excellent feature is the fact that simulation is used throughout to develop probabilistic inttiution. All in all a wonderful book. I write textbooks in the field but several examples in the book (such as Poisson approximation to the famous birthday problem) taught me some new tricks!

A great introduction to probability

This book very clearly explains why probability works and how to apply it. The first six chapters help the beginner develop a "feel for probabilities", using wonderful examples from real life. In the ensuing chapters the book gives a very clear explanation of the basics of probability theory. The author shows a high degree of awareness of the difficulties commonly encountered by beginning students of probability. He skilfully makes use of all conceivable devices to facilitate understanding of concepts such as density functions and conditional expectations. A great book!

A great book

This is the book for understanding and learning probability! I used this lively introduction to probability in class and I found it a pleasure to read it. The challenging problems and the way they are tackled using computer simulations before providing analytic solutions, gave the students a lot of insights. Also the key concepts and ideas from probability theory are treated in a very clear way. I wished I had seen this book before.