Using Meteorology Probability Forecasts in Operational Hydrology

By Thomas E. Croley

This book simplifies atmospheric predictions to enable laypeople to make their own derivative forecasts. Scientists and engineers can learn to predict weather-dependent phenomena to assess the risks associated with decisions in the construction and operation phases of water resources planning. This self-educating method simultaneously uses probabilistic meteorology forecasts over different time scales, time periods, spatial domains, probability statements, and meteorology variables. This practical, hands-on guide presents comprehensive and straightforward theory, procedures, and examples for using short-term, seasonal, and interannual forecasts of meteorology probabilities, which are available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Environment Canada, and other agencies. The examples use different hydrology models and employ both user-defined and agency-produced meteorology probability forecasts in the United States and Canada. The examples also illustrate El Nino and La Nina conditional probabilities and examples of their derivation, as well as provide sufficient information for the reader's own applications. An extensive appendix describes the acquisition, installation, and use of freely available software to prepare historical files for individualized applications, to input forecast meteorology probabilities of a specific site, to extract reference quantile estimates, to prioritize forecasts, and to solve the resulting set of equations for derivative forecasts. About the Author Thomas E. Croley II is a research hydrologist at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0784404593
• ISBN13: 9780784404591
• Release Date: January 2000
• Publisher: Amer Society of Civil Engineers
• Length: 206 Pages
• Weight: 0.65 lbs.
• Dimensions: 8.8" x 0.5" x 6.0"