Understanding Escalation: A Framework for Evaluating the Escalatory Risks of Policy Actions

By Michael J. Mazarr, Anthony Atler, Dara Massicot

This report presents an analysis of the factors that govern escalatory risk from U.S. policy options during periods of peace, crisis, or war. The analysis combines theoretical and historical research with a current assessment of Chinese and Russian views of escalation. The research provides the basis for building a framework that could be useful to the U.S. Army and policymakers to assess the possible effects of proposed policy actions.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 1977412599
• ISBN13: 9781977412591
• Release Date: August 2025
• Publisher: RAND Corporation
• Length: 186 Pages