Thucydides Was Right: Defining the Future Threat: Defining the Future Threat

By Colin S. Gray, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

This monograph examines the challenge in future threat definition. In order to do, it is necessary to understand where identification of threat originates, and how and why such identification is made in the context of international political relations. To define future threat is, in a sense, an impossible task, yet it is one that must be done. The only sources of empirical evidence accessible are the past and the present; one cannot obtain understanding about the future from the future. The author draws upon the understanding of strategic history obtainable from Thucydides' great History of the Peloponnesian War. He advises prudence as the operating light for American definition of future threat, and believes that there are historical parallels between the time of Thucydides and our own that can help us avoid much peril. The future must always be unpredictable to us in any detail, but the many and potent continuities in history's great stream of time can serve to alert us to what may well happen in kind.

Based on the author's analysis of Thucydides interpretation of strategic history influence, threats are often carried out when there is envy of an economic stable, technological advanced, and a solid local political process exists. The author views that these strategic history elements in the face of America's viewed as a global super power and our U.S. military will need to be fine-tuning our foreign strategic interests, and military strategy on a regular basis.Political scientists, historians, and military strategists, and international relations specialists may be interested in this work because these identified historical strategic forces could determine the future security of our nation.

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• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 1584876700
• ISBN13: 9781584876700
• Release Date: October 2016
• Publisher: Department of the Army
• Length: 72 Pages
• Age Range: 18 to 10 years
• Grade Range: Postsecondary to Grade 5