The Coming Boom: Economic, Political, and Social

by Herman Kahn

Book Overview

The Hudson Institute's chairman and director of research refutes recent pessimistic forecasts concerning America's future and presents imaginative views, prognoses, and remedies that stress the clear... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0671442627
• ISBN13: 9780671442620
• Release Date: January 1982
• Publisher: Simon & Schuster
• Length: 237 Pages
• Weight: 1.20 lbs.

Customer Reviews

Timeless Look at How the Future Economy and Life Will Change

I have a first printing of this book which I first read in 1982. I recently decided to reread it to better understand how Herman Kahn's pioneering work on scenario development had held up over time. Based on understanding where it had worked well, I wanted to get insights into how to repeat his process.Well, was I in for a surprise! When I first read the book, I was overwhelmed by its optimism . . . coming on the heels the "Stagflation" following the Oil Shock in the 1970s. At that time, the stock market was about to make a major bottom, having fallen well below the highs of both 1966 and 1973. Treasury bonds were yielding 15 percent. Inflation was romping, and the economy wasn't. President Reagan had just been elected and taxes had been cut, but it hadn't seemed to help yet. Since then, we have enjoyed an unprecedented prosperity with only one brief recession in 18 years. Yes, Mr. Kahn got it right.But what was astonishing was to read his specific predictions. For example, his description of future computer networks matches what we do on the Internet today very well. His descriptions of a worldwide plunge in adult female fertility in economically advanced countries were right on. His thoughts about government policy, how to fight inflation, and social adjustments that would help reduce inflation were all highly accurate.How did he do this? Well, he used a combination of examining long-term trends (usually over centuries), determining the causes of these trends, and then considering scenarios for areas where individual action could make a difference. Most impressive. For those who like Harry S. Dent, Jr.'s work (and I count myself among that group), Herman Kahn's book will be an important extension of that thinking.Since Kahn used so many long-term causes in his thinking, the observations stand today. You just have to extend them a little more into the future on your own, now that Mr. Kahn is no longer with us. I hope that his publishers will consider having someone do a new edition of this book that puts the track record beside the original, and thoughtfully extends the book into the next 20 years. It would be a most valuable resource.Where else do we miss the big picture by looking at the ripples on the lake rather than the lake itself? Identify and go with the irresistible forces!

As Mr. Kerwick says

I too read this book in 1982 and from time to time have thought about it over the years. Now in the year 2000 I find myself fairly stunned at how accurately Kahn predicted the future. Books about the future were common in the 70's and 80's, Future Shock, Club of Rome, Greening of America and so on, but none so clearly predicted the world we have today.Mr. Kerwick has said it better than I can. If the book is out of print, try looking in zShops, there is a copy of it there now.

Predictions which Came True from a Lost American Genius

I first read this book in 1982 when its optimism seemed questionable, if not preposterous. Now, almost 20 years later, through good (then) and bad (now) administrations, Kahn's predictions proved astonishingly accurate. They contrast markedly and tellingly with the gloom and doom pronounced by a lot of people who are still around and still misstating the present and future (did you hear that Al?). Herman Kahn is said to have achieved the highest score ever on military standardized tests during his youth in the 1940's and he was undoubtedly one of the few American geniuses of my lifetime. The Hudson Institute lives on as his legacy, but it has never quite lived up to his own level of excellence. The great reason to look for a copy of this book long out of print is to consider the premises and rationale and compare them to the prognostications from the greens and others on the left. No one can tell the future and probably few if any even approach the intellectual prowress of a Herman Kahn, but a review of the methodology of genius (and that of the chicken littles) ought to go a long way in defining where to place our trust and where to assign our skepticism.