Systems and methods to select targeted advertising for display are disclosed. An example method to select targeted advertising for display includes identifying an advertisement corresponding to the first product, identifying a saturation metric for the advertisement, determining a net effectiveness metric based on an opportunity metric and the saturation metric, the opportunity metric being based on a difference between an expected consumption of a first product by the household and actual consumption of the product by the household, and delivering the advertisement to the household via a media transmission when the net effectiveness metric is greater than a threshold.
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