Study of China's Possible Military Intervention in the Event of a Sudden Change in North Korea
This study addresses potential scenarios as to how a North Korean collapse could occur, whether China's military would engage in North Korea, and how China's military might intervene if it did so. First, regarding the likely scenarios for a North Korean collapse, this study looks at a power struggle, a military coup, or a popular uprising as potential scenarios of internal origin. Additionally, it discusses a military conflict between the two Koreas and U.S. military operations against North Korea as scenarios of conflict with an external origin. Second, based on an analysis of China's external environment and national interests, this study proposes that China's military would intervene only if a North Korean collapse were caused by an internal conflict. This study also posits that, despite its military alliance obligations, China would not intervene militarily on the Korean Peninsula if the collapse was due to an external conflict. Finally, concerning the form of China's military intervention in case of an internally driven collapse, based on Lykke's military strategy model, this study compares the advantages and disadvantages of a unilateral intervention, multinational operations, and UN-led peacekeeping operations and concludes that China would prefer a UN-led PKO because such an operation would best balance the ends, ways, and means and present acceptable risks for China.
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