In "Sleepwalking Toward a Precipice" Mr. Jason B. Leach, CFA (Portfolio Manager at Cravens Brothers Wealth Advisors) uses a unique, cartoon on napkin presentation to look beyond debt and deleveraging (the primary discussion around the Great Recession, 2008 credit crisis, and ongoing global malaise) to assess the myriad influencers of economic growth, and thus market prospects going forward (i.e., growth is tied to earnings, earnings tied to markets, etc.). Part I of Sleepwalking Toward a Precipice focuses on structural issues in the United States and their potential drag on economic growth. Part II discusses structural problems in Europe and China, a variety of unknowns that could impact growth and markets, and central banks' distortionary impact on growth and markets. In Part III, Mr. Leach discusses secular bear markets, P/E compression, "accordion-shaped" returns, "renting reflation" and "essential essentials" as he lays out some of his recommendations for navigating uncertain market conditions over the next few years. It is a brief, but full compass look at global growth using entertaining visuals to both accompany and emphasize the humorous but serious nature of nations sleepwalking toward a precipice.
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