Profiting from Uncertainty: Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings

By Robert E. Gunther and Paul J.H. Schoemaker

Book Overview

What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity.

Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty.

More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can't do without them.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 150116175X
• ISBN13: 9781501161759
• Release Date: October 2016
• Publisher: Atria Books
• Length: 304 Pages
• Weight: 0.80 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.9" x 6.0" x 9.2"

Customer Reviews

Best Strategy Book I Have Ever Read

As a consultant, I have been working with companies in all kinds of industries on strategy issues for 25 years. During that time, I have been a prolific reader of books on the strategy process, as well as of books on strategies being used by leading companies. I am not sure how I missed this book when it was published seven years ago, but I am grateful that I finally learned about it as a result of a chance encounter with author Paul Schoemaker. As I write this review, companies in all manner of industries face as much uncertainty as likely has ever existed in modern business times. Many a CEO has told me that they are struggling not only with problems of their company but also with unbelievable uncertainty as to both the overall economy and as to their industry. Ripple effects from other industries are causing all kinds of problems. Uncertainty reigns supreme. Schoemaker writes about an approach to strategy development and planning that embraces the uncertainty, and he goes even further to encourage management to profit from uncertainty. I love the way his holistic approach weaves together strategy development best practices, decision theory, organizational behavior, and dynamic monitoring. Brilliant! When written in the year following the 9/11 catastrophe, uncertainty was an important factor for management to consider and the author gives insightful examples of companies doing exactly that. But, in today's global meltdown, planning for uncertainty becomes an absolute necessity. In a sense, this was a book written ahead of its time. But, you can expect to see more and more books emulating this gem over the next twelve to eighteen months. No need to wait for those books, this book is the pace setter. The notion of planning for uncertainty is intellectually stimulating. Fortunately, Schoemaker writes very clearly with none of the pomposity so common to writing by many of the academically gifted. Concepts are well explained and thoughtfully illustrated. The organization of the material is first rate, and the editing a pleasure compared to the norm in today's business books. This is one of the finest business books I have ever read. And, it certainly is a critical prescription for every executive struggling to deal with so much uncertainty, right in the middle of a downturn that I believe will turn out to be as severe as anything since the Great Depression. I strongly recommend the book...and the implementation of the concepts set out by this brilliant strategist.

Helpful review

The best thing going for this book is that it is in fact well-written not like most of the dreck in business books. The ideas here are not revolutionary and you're not likely to find anything you hadn't at least heard before. It does however organize all of these disparate thoughts and bring them together in a way to help motivate action.Along the way I'd also recommend Tony Murphy's Achieving Business Value from IT as a book that effectively does the same thing -- organizes information well to help you move toward positive action and improving process and performance (as oppossed to strategy which is this books forte).