Pro Football Prospectus 2005

by Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders The, The Football Outsiders

For the over 14 million people who play fantasy football every year; for the hardcore fan who wants information beyond sports page recaps; for everyone who bets on the NFL; and for the smart, casual... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0761140190
• ISBN13: 9780761140191
• Release Date: July 2005
• Publisher: Workman Publishing
• Length: 440 Pages
• Weight: 2.25 lbs.
• Dimensions: 1.0" x 8.6" x 10.8"

Customer Reviews

THE best NFL work since "Hidden Game of Football"

Outstanding work that advances our knowledge of pro football considerably. Along with the original "Hidden Game of Football" (circa 1980's version) this work stands as the premiere attempt to improve the current sorry state of official NFL statistics. It includes sophisticated breakdowns of team performance at the play-by-play level, centering around Bill James-esque ratings like "Defense adjusted value over average" and "Points above Replacement". In essence instead of treating a yard as a yard it varies by the situation -- picking up one yard on 3rd and 1 is better than picking up 5 yards on 3rd and 10. With regards to the reviewers who claim it's the "same old, same old" nothing could be further from the truth. You've never seen individual performance ratings like these, nor team unit breakdowns on offensive line play, defensive line, defensive secondary, etc. Instead of "opinions" you get actual data and ratings. Moreover, arguably the best parts of the book are the aside research articles -- where else have you seen things like: - comprehensive review of whether it's better to rush or pass on third/fourth and short situations (looking at everything from the odds of getting the first down to the chance of scoring on the drive) - were the Ravens telegraphing their playcalling last season based on which RB's they had in on the play (conclusion: likely YES) - the most important part of the field for performance (the Red Zone is second...but play between your own 20 and 39 on offense has a higher correlation with net points and wins) - a technical defense of Mike Martz that will leave you thinking that despite the highly publicized "errors" in clock management, his teams have achieved far more wins than the pure stats would project, AND he has the highest winning percentage of any coach when having any lead at any time of the 4th quarter (.914) - a review of the KICKOFF value of kickers in addition to their field goal kicking...there's a reason why several teams now carry guys who only kickoff Clearly the disgruntled reviewers here were either: 1) connected in some ways to the previous versions of this book written by different writers 2) had only fantasy football interest and were looking for the typical blather there instead of straight to the point valuations (I mean this book does give projected 2005 stats for EVERY skill position player including rookies) 3) don't understand or care about the revolutionary nature of this work: trust me, soon enough ratings like these will be commonly referred to by all intelligent NFL analysts this book rocks.

Fantasy Football excellence

This is a great book for any fantasy football player, or really any football fan. It has something for all types of fans, from the casual fan looking for some information on their favorite team to the stat junkie (like some of my friends). A few of my favorite spots: The essay on the Redskins coaches, the analysis of Mike Martz, and just the general humor sprinkled throughout the book. It's almost like the Daily Show, but for football. (Don't miss the Visanthe Shiancoe comment under Tight Ends and you'll see what I mean!)

Great Fantasy Football Prep Guide

Around this time of year, you see so many magazine stands saturated with fantasy guides showing how to draft. Well, if you want that, with actual reasoning and rationale, check this out. One, it's a great guide if you're a football fan to find out how your team or player will do. But from a f-fball perspective, it gives a great guide to players, sleepers AND busts, and projections for the coming year. If you contact their site and make a small donation to their fund, you can even get a handy spreadsheet for easy handling on draft day. A must-read, as I've reaped the rewards from the baseball prospectus.

Revolutionary

I echo the sentiments of the previous writer. Since the book came in the mail three days ago, I have found it very difficult to put down. In the search for more NFL information, I usually try and catch every NFL show on TV, and I scour the internet. I then usually hear and read such revealing information like "Terrell Owens is on of the best receivers in the game". Really??? Thanks for the inisight!! Now the search is over. Their statistical analysis is revolutonary. Now you can compare players in specific numerical categories. You can compare offensive lines in several statistical categories. You can also compare the results of defenses guarding the opposing team's #2 WR!! The examples I could use are endless. They are also thorough. If you play fantasy football, they have stats on almost EVERY skill player that touched the field last year, as well as projections on all of those players this year. For those people that play fantasy football, you know that there are usually a handful of players every year that make a unexpected, significant fantasy impact. These types of players usually get no print in fantasy magazines. Now you have an expansive reference from which you can try and discover the next great unknown. I haven't seen a fantasy football magazine that goes into this much depth. Words don't do this book justice; You truly have to get the book yourself to see what we're talking about. This book was written for people that can't get enough statistical information, and those that want analysis of that information. If you have an intellectual background, this book will especially appeal to you. The book will also be an excellent reference guide during games. It would be excellent for broadcasters to use as a reference during games. Five minutes after you purchase the book, you will realize that all the other football magazines you have bought in the past are pretty much useless.

Without a question, the best fantasy resource I have ever seen

A few days ago, this book came in the mail and has since completely changed the way that I look at football. Inside this 440-paged tome includes new statistics: the DPAR, or Defense-Adjusted Points Above Replacement, which rates skill players on how much better they are overall compared to a replacement-level player, keeping in mind the defenses the player faces; its counterpart PAR, which is not defense-adjusted; the DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which compares any player or team to the average of the specific type; and its counterpart, VOA. Also included are the KUBIAK projections, which predict and broadcast the statistics of the star quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, kickers and tight ends. This system comes up with some very interesting ideas, such as a major comeback for Matt Hasselbeck, Kevin Jones as the league's leading rusher, a severe decline for Curtis Martin and Antonio gates overtaking Tony Gonzalez as the best fantasy football tight end. Finally, various research was included in Pro Football, including thoughts on the Maroon Zone of Gregg Easterbrook fame, the effect of schedule on statistics, how offensive and defensive coordinators actually affect a team, and the 100 best quarterback seasons of all time. Without a question, the book that predicted San Diego's "out of nowhere" offensive surge last year will once again be the greatest resource to any fantasy football player or even for someone who really wants to know how the game truly works.