1. Introduction 2. The Relevant Literature on Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking 3. Modeling the Relationship between Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking 4. The Turkish Policy to Remove Syrian President Assad: Overconfidence Obscures Risks and Magnifies Failure 5. The Turkish Policy to Remove Syrian President Assad: Overconfidence Obscures Risks and Magnifies Failure 6. Conclusion
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