Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees Into Visionaries

By Donald N. Thompson

Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections--prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds. Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations--GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA--has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done. In Oracles , Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can: - draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee - tap the "intellectual bandwidth" of retired employees - replace surveys - substitute for endless meetings By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they've overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the market--all to the benefit of their bottom line.

• Format: Hardcover
• Language: English
• ISBN: 1422183173
• ISBN13: 9781422183175
• Release Date: June 2012
• Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
• Length: 272 Pages
• Weight: 1.10 lbs.
• Dimensions: 1.0" x 6.2" x 9.3"