Operational Decision-Making: Theory and Practice
Explains how operational-level commanders must make complex, forward-looking decisions based on incomplete information, treating their choices as hypotheses shaped by uncertainty and large-scale military dynamics.
The number and importance of the decisions vary for each level of war. The higher the level of war, the fewer decisions are made and the larger the time window for making them. Operational commanders make fewer decisions, but the impact of these decisions is much greater than those made at the tactical level. The key for making sound operational decisions is to have an accurate picture of the operational situation. Such a picture cannot be obtained by a simple sum of tactical data or information. In fact, the operational situation should be built as a synthesis of strategic and tactical information pertaining to the operational commander's area of responsibility plus his area of interest. It deals with both military and nonmilitary aspects of the situation. This is especially true for the operational commander and, to a lesser extent, for subordinate tactical commanders. The operational commander must make his decisions by considering trends in the operational situation several weeks or even months into the future. In contrast, the tactical commander is concerned with the developments of the tactical situation, from a few hours to 72 or 96 hours in the future. Information technologies should be considered as aids in making operational decisions, not as the masters of the entire decision-making process. The personality traits, professional education, experience, judgment, and wisdom of the operational commander are the key to making sound operational or strategic decisions.
Operational decisions are made by operational or operational-tactical commanders. They are intended to have a major effect on a campaign or major operation during its planning, preparation, and execution phases. The commander's most important operational decisions pertain to changes in the original objectives, shift from offensive to defensive or vice versa, shift of the sector of main effort / point of main attack (defense), concentration / counter concentration, maneuver / counter maneuver, use / non-use of tactical or operational fires, change in sequencing and synchronization, commitment of operational reserves, and pursuit / counter pursuit. The operational decisions in the post-hostilities phase of a campaign are relatively few but are also critical for consolidating the strategic success achieved during the major combat phase.
The main method in making a decision is by using an estimate of a military situation. In military terms, the commander's estimate of the situation is understood as a logical process of reasoning by which a commander considers all the factors affecting a military situation to determine a course of action to accomplish a given mission. The estimate is a reasoned solution to a problem in which each step in the process incrementally leads to a decision that, without these steps, could be arrived at only by an accident. In the estimate, the commander assesses the situation and then tries to embark on a certain course of action aimed at changing the situation for the better or at least taking advantage of the given situation. The ultimate result of the estimate should be a sound decision.
The estimate of the situation is conducted by using the analytic or intuitive method of combination of these two. The analytic method of the commander's estimate is extensively used in all militaries. It is especially valuable in education and training of inexperienced commanders and staff officers. At the operational level, it is used in making a decision for planning campaigns/major operations as part of war (contingency) planning in peacetime. It is also applied in a case of an imminent outbreak of hostilities for planning a campaign or major operations. The analytic method requires high degree of situational certainty and accuracy. It is not very suitable in combat because it is very time-consuming and requires involvement of many staff officers. It contains numerous steps and sub steps. By the time the commander makes the decision, it is most likely already overtaken by the events. In contrast to the analytic method, intuitive method relies on the commander's experience and judgment to make a quick and sound decision. It is highly suitable when the time for making a decision is very short, information on the situation is insufficient, the objectives are ill-defined, and contact between the higher commander and subordinate commanders is sporadic or entirely missing. Some studies show that the intuitive method is used 90 percent of the time. Mastery of the analytic method of the estimate is the key factor in making fast and sound intuitive decisions in combat.
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