Operation Vigilant Warrior: Conventional Deterrence Theory, Doctrine, and Practice
This thesis examines Operation Vigilant Warrior, the United States response to the movement of two Iraqi armored divisions toward the Kuwaiti border during the first week of October 1994, to better prepare defense planners for future crises. The action turned back Iraq's aggression and provided insight into options for crisis resolution. The research begins with a general examination of the Iraq-Kuwait conflict and the reconstruction of the events, beginning with US detection of the Iraqi movement and ending with their withdrawal and the demobilization of US forces. Primary research sources included interviews, official press releases, and domestic and foreign periodicals. These, combined with secondary sources and theoretical works lead to the conclusion that US conventional deterrence doctrine should be updated to reflect the deterrence lessons of Vigilant Warrior. The work proposes a four element model for effective deterrence based on power, agility, intent, and resolve. These measures should be applied with the knowledge that deterrence is based on the perceptions and values of the target decision-maker(s) and that deterrence in crisis situations is related to the general conditions of deterrence before crises erupt. Increased use of remote sensors and digital data distribution combined with skilled human analysis may allow US conventional deterrence forces to rely more on agility than on their latent power. An agile deterrence strategy may be the most effective route to stability in future regional crises.
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