Italy's economy has proved resilient in the face of recent global shocks. Nonetheless, medium-term growth prospects are weighed down by high public debt, population ageing, and rising uncertainty linked to global trade policy, geopolitical tensions and stronger international competition. Reforms and investments under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan are helping to address long-standing structural weaknesses and support fiscal consolidation, and the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan continues many of these efforts. Ensuring that public debt declines durably will require improving spending efficiency, containing pension-related pressures, strengthening tax compliance and making the tax mix more supportive of growth. Population ageing heightens the need to improve labour market outcomes for young people, many of whom are out of training or work, or emigrate, by strengthening school-to-work transitions, expanding high-quality vocational and technical education, reducing labour market duality and supporting their disposable incomes. Reducing energy costs and volatility through faster deployment of renewable generation, transmission and storage would strengthen competitiveness and household well-being. Enabling firms to grow by easing regulatory and tax compliance burdens, improving access to finance, strengthening innovation support and managerial capabilities, and reducing disincentives to scale up would help raise productivity and resilience.
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