Beyond Calculation: The Next Fifty Years of Computing

by Robert M. Metcalfe and Peter J. Denning

Book Overview

The scientific, social and economic impact of computers is only beginning to be felt. These sixteen invited essays on the future of computing take on a dazzling variety of topics, featuring opinions from Gordon Bell, Paul Abraham, Sherry Turkle, David Gelernter, Donald Norman, Edsger W. Dijkstra, and many other notables. This brilliantly eclectic collection, commissioned to celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of the first electronic computer, will...

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0387985883
• ISBN13: 9780387985886
• Release Date: September 1998
• Publisher: Copernicus Books
• Length: 313 Pages
• Weight: 1.15 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.9" x 6.1" x 9.2"

Customer Reviews

Beyond Calculation: A Review

BEYOND CALCULATION was published in celebration of the golden anniversary of the Association of Computing Machinery (ACM). The twenty essays explore computing over the next fifty years in terms of the future consequences caused by the way computers are being used today in Part I, The Coming Revolution". The affect computers will have on our lives and identity is discussed in Part II, "Computers and Human Identity". This review will focus on Pare III, Business and Innovation". The writers who contribute to Part III look at the effects of "ubiquitous digital information" on leadership, business practices, innovation, and learning. The omnipresence of digital information is given artificial life in "Sharing Our Planet". Donald D. Chamberlin suggests that, like DNA, digital devices form an ecosystem or "digital habitat". Occupying the ecosystem are "digital individuals", the programs that give the devices function and personality. The "digital habitat" has grown into an interconnected global network. Chamberlin concludes that as a result of the "new digital inhabitants" information becomes free and ubiquitous. The leader that emerges in the year 2047 will be responsible for the articulation and rearticulation of a company's identity. In an environment where change may be the only constant, the leader takes a new approach to change viewing it as healthy and necessary. The leader must lead the reinvention of a company's identity over time to insure the company's survival. The impact of three decades of computers and information technology has transformed the computer from a calculator and storage device to a vital communication tool. The world becomes more fast pace as information technology reduces the time between innovation and effect. In "Information Warfare", Larry Druffel highlights the issues surrounding internet security. This essay places the responsibility for the protection of information with the individual or institution that owns it. In light of the recent security intrusions into some of internet's largest websites, security becomes an immense concern when we envision having all information in some electronic form fifty years from now. The learning institution will change to prepare knowledge workers for the workplace of the future. Environments of hyperlearning will replace classrooms with a linear model of learning. In the hyperlearning environment the student-teacher relationship as "apprentice-master" will be most effective. The job of the teacher will be to cultivate knowledge. The two forces that will drive change in the curricula, learning environment and the role of the teacher, reflect both student demand for a more "customer-orientated relationship with the university" and the affect of digital media and networking. The leadership of the future will be faced with all of these issues. The contributors to Part III, "Business and Innovation", agree on one point.

Living Beyond...

Beyond Calculation is a collection of 20 essays by some of the cream of computing's top echelon. For the most part, these are not futuristic scenarios- the authors present fairly conservative observations regarding the future of computing. This circumspection is no accident - most of the authors have lived and worked through the full range of computing's evolutionary development and they are quite aware of the disjunction between earlier futuristic predictions and today's realities. On the other hand, they are also cognizant of the grand surprises in innovation and culture that have taken computing in directions that futurists of yore never foresaw. On another level, Beyond Calculation provides a fascinating view into a particular community of practice. For as one reads the individual essays, one encounters similarities in references that undoubtedly arise from the fact that many of these essayists have collaborated in a variety of ways over (in some cases) several decades. Many (all?) are associated with the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) which published the compendium. What is a common conclusion drawn among these essayists? The message is clear- that this is an environment in which surprises have been and will continue to be the norm (Frankston, 56), and that "we should expect that our understanding is incomplete and wrong so that we can adapt to surprises" (55). The surprises in innovation and the social implications of these innovations preclude us from envisioning at this point whatever the full future of computing will bring. Winograd summarizes best this consensus when he writes:Imagine that on the 50th anniversary of the "Association for Automotive Machinery" a group of experts had been asked to speculate on the "next fifty years of driving". They might well have envisioned new kinds of engines, automatic braking, and active suspension systems. But what about interstate freeways, drive-in movies, and the decline of the inner city? These are not exactly changes in "driving" but in the end they are the most significant consequence of automotive technology (159-160).Perhaps, then, only through hindsight we will be able to identify `the most significant consequences of computing technology."

WOW! What the future can hold...

A compulation of essays by some awesome minds. This book examines the ideas of the future via a technique of developing scenarios. Each author was asked to predict what the next fifty years would bring. Some of the authors look at advancement of technology itself. Other authors review what some of those advancements might mean with regards to our living space. Additional essays explore what business will look like in the year 2047. A key theme running through the essays is the ubiquitious nature technology will have in years ahead. Having technology inter-woven and abundant in our lives will change many social and political institutions. "Beyond Calculation" depicts these ideas with both tactical information to consider as well as futuristic ideas of what might be possible.The book also works through ideas about how technology will become more user friendly and design simplificaton will become essential.All of the ideas are exciting and interesting. Great read if you like considering the unknown, the reachable, or endless possiblities. A BOOK TO REALLY MAKE YOU THINK!

The next 50 years look bright

A compilation of 20 essays which speculate about the impacts of future technological advances on society. Divided into sections, the essays address three themes: The Coming Revolution (speculation about hardware, software and networks); Computers and Human Identity (the impact cheap computing may have in regard to the way people live and work); and Business and Innovation (the impact technology will have on business practices and on the process of innovation). The individual authors whose essays were included in the book are all members of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). The authors responded to a call, in 1997, for papers which would attempt to look 50 years into the future to, "...examine the current realities of how people are using computers and what they [authors] are concerned about, and then project the consequences over the next few decades." (xv) A 'futures' book, Beyond Calculation offers a positive look at how technology might interact with us in the not-so-distant future. The most impressive quality of the book is the grounded-ness of the essays. As readers, we are not presented with a mountain of pie-in-the-sky predictions that have no basis in reality, or Star Wars-like oohs and ahs. To the contrary, anyone with any knowledge of technology will see that these are serious essays, by qualified technologists taking care to work within a framework of common sense. The futures they paint seem plausible, yet are still surprising. I found myself saying, "of course" many times as I read through the scenarios. The book itself should be of great interest to anyone who is struggling to get a view of how technology will impact us in the future. Thankfully, these authors, save one, believe that if we can keep our perspective on the idea of technology serving and expanding us, the rush rush of today's hyperculture can subside. Educators, business people and those with an interest in learning what technology can (and might) do should definitely open and read this book. It is a hopeful look at a future too many are willing to paint in gray.

We will publish its Chinese translation version in 1998

I am the chief editor of series books called "Computer Culture" that includes this book. Hebei University Publishing House in Baiding, China, has brought its Chinese translation copyright through Copyright Agency of China in Beijing. We will publish it in 1998. The series also include books Out of Their Mind and The State of the Cybernation. My email address is: huajie@usa.net