Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World

by Henry N. Pollack

Book Overview

Is the world warming due to the Greenhouse Effect? Can nuclear weapon arsenals be relied upon without periodic testing? Is the world running out of oil? What action should be taken against an outbreak... This description may be from another edition of this product.

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0521619106
• ISBN13: 9780521619103
• Release Date: July 2005
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Length: 256 Pages
• Weight: 0.79 lbs.
• Dimensions: 0.5" x 6.1" x 9.0"

Customer Reviews

Valuable Book, But Could Be Better

This book provides valuable discussion of the ways in which uncertainty pervades science, and indeed all of life. Many facets of uncertainty are addressed, along with practical ways to manage uncertainty and make effective decisions while accounting for it. The writing is also of high quality, being both straightforward and clear. However, I have two major complaints with the book. First, while the book has much valuable content, the organization of the book is much like an extended essay, with the result that key points are somewhat buried in the text, rather than standing out and "sticking" in the mind as they should. A more textbook-like organization, with chapter introductions, chapter summaries, bullet points of key ideas, etc., would have greatly increased the utility and likely impact of the book. Second, while the book purports to cover uncertainty in science, the provided examples heavily emphasize global warming, rather than using a more balanced sampling from all of the sciences. This unbalanced emphasis on global warming is a significant distraction, and for me it also grew increasingly tiresome and boring. Because of these two issues, I was compelled to lower my rating to 4 stars instead of 5. Nevertheless, because of the paucity of literature dealing with scientific uncertainty, I still definitely recommend this book for readers interested in this important topic.

An absolute must!!!

Henry Pollack equips the non-scientific reader with several powerful tools with which to assess the world in which we live. Even as a practicing scientist, I found this book informative, entertaining and well written. This book should be required reading at the start of any degree in any scientific (or even social) related field as it goes to the heart of many of societies problems. I also urge secondary school educational policy makers, especially those involved in formation of science curriculums, to read this book. The second chapter is especially relevant to them and contains direct and constructive criticisms of how our education system is 'shortchanging' our future adults.I believe, the two most important points detailed in this book are that 1) Science is NOT, (contrary to the misconception brought about by modern education), about facts, rather uncertainty and likelihood, which drives science forward. 2) Lack of certainty is therefore in no way a reason for inaction when it comes to important discussion which may effect the stas-quo. Pollack, sensibly uses his own field of geological expertise when focusing on this point by coming back to the global warming again and again.Henry Pollack has written a much needed book which explodes the popular notions about science, whilst using plain English and dispassionate reasoning in order to build-up the publics understanding and convidence into how science works. A clear sign of self-evaluation, critical thinking and fairness is shown when Pollack also attacks certain facets of the scientific establishment for their poor public contact: this is exemplified by the sentance "The ultimate responsibiliy for removing the curtain of obscurity that surrounds science lies with its practitioners...successful teachers do not hide behind a barrage of technical jargon" (pg 28). Great book!

Certainly good

Some books fit in the must-read category because of the ideas they bring. This is one of those, a warning of the dangers of scientific ignorance.We've heard it before, regarding evolution, global warming, the dangers of smoking: "It's just a theory." As if to dismiss massive amounts of scientific evidence because of a limited amount of uncertainty is okay, or to allow crackpota who think that smoking is harmless equal time although their arguments are utterly flaky. Here is a book that shows that such arguments are both wrong and destructive.Pollack focuses on global warming, which is a good illustrative example of how the uncertainties of science are manipulated (and a subject that fits into his geological background). He shows that few things in science are dead certain and that there are levels of uncertainty. It may be impossible to show a 100% certain link between global warming and fossil fuels, but that doesn't mean the idea should be dismissed casually. Pollack points out that most of the people who exploit the uncertainty have a vested interest in the status quo.There is blame aplenty to be spread, but Pollack seems to point the finger most strongly at the public which is in general scientifically ignorant enough to buy these specious arguments. Other entities such as the media and politicians are hardly guilt-free either, nor is the scientific community which often makes itself inaccessible to the public.Pollack is a good writer. The main flaw in the book is you're never fully certain what it wants to be. A book about scientific uncertainty that uses global warming as its prime example or a book about the risks of global warming that discusses the exploitation of "uncertain science" in showing why these risks continue. Either way, this book - which would normally be a four star book - gets a bonus star because its message is too important to ignore, whichever of the two it may be.

Widely Ranging ... Broadly Sweeping

The subject of uncertainty is discussed in just about all of its aspects - from the physical sciences to sociology - but with greater emphasis on climate change. The author discusses the meaning of "uncertainty" and emphasizes that it is not synonymous with "ignorance". He gives plenty of examples in a variety of disciplines to clearly illustrate his point. He explains how the probabilities of various potential causes for certain observed phenomena can be scrutinized and, often with great ingenuity, reduced to near nothingness. This narrowing down of uncertainty can often help facilitate the task of decision makers charged with improving the human condition. This book should be read by anyone who has ever wondered how there can still be uncertainty in a society as technologically advanced as ours. The writing is clear and engaging and the book is difficult to put down.

It's The Uncertainty, Stupid!

One of the hardest things to teach to 9th-graders is that uncertainty in science, rather than being a bad thing ["Are you trying to tell us that everything science says will be proven wrong!?!"], is one of the things that makes modern science thrive. Most adults don't get the uncertainty thing either; otherwise, more nicotine addicts might've realized that when the tobacco companies used the fact that scientists couldn't prove that cigarettes cause cancer at a 100% certainty level as a reason to assure them that they could continue to smoke without worry, that those companies were misusing the methods of modern science as a smoke screen. Henry Pollack tries to bring a deeper understanding of scientific uncertainty to the masses with his book Uncertain Science...Uncertain World.Pollack starts the book by laying out some general facts about science and uncertainty. He then goes on to gently chastise scientists and the media for their contributions to the public's lack of understanding of scientific uncertainty. The meat of the book is an examination of scientific uncertainty in all its guises. I especially enjoyed his use of examples that the layperson will easily understand [forensics in the solving of crimes and air crashes, how insurance works, etc.] along with tougher and more obscure scientific examples. The example that Pollack returns to again and again is that of climate change and global warming [Pollack's own research has contributed to this debate], and the final chapter focuses solely on the global warming debates [scientific AND political].I thoroughly enjoyed the book and most of my complaints are personal ones involving examples I would have used in addition to Pollack's had I written the book. Any reader that has firmly decided that global warming is a __________ [liberal, Democratic, left-wing...insert your favorite!] myth should stay away from this book because you'll miss the overall message of the book everytime you get steamed about one of Pollack's climatic examples. I would definitely recommend this book to any layperson who wants a good understanding of how scientists deal with, and benefit from, uncertainty.