Big Dragon: The Future of China: What It Means for Business, the Economy, and the Global Order

by Arne de Keijzer and Dan Burstein

Book Overview

After the dust settles on the current Asian crisis, China will still exist -- the other super-power in the world of the twenty-first century, the country that has been rightfully dubbed not just another player in Asia but the "biggest player in the history of man."
This thought-provoking book explores how China will evolve and what its emerging economic prowess and growing political clout will mean for business, economic, and political...

• Format: Paperback
• Language: English
• ISBN: 0684853663
• ISBN13: 9780684853666
• Release Date: March 1999
• Publisher: Free Press
• Length: 416 Pages
• Weight: 1.21 lbs.
• Dimensions: 1.2" x 5.6" x 8.4"

Customer Reviews

Actually about politics, sociology, and Chinese history

Written about 5 years ago by a NYC investment banker and a China Mgmt consultancy based in CT, this book is naturally positive towards PRChina. This book covers the end of the second decade of Premier Deng's Reform and Opening to foreign investment. And before the Asian crash of 2000.The authors' point-of-view is towards the political, sociological, and militarily first, economics second, and corporate investment third. They obliquely discuss US corporate investments, but this is neither a How To book, nor a B-school reader. Many remarks and keylines are more towards an extended discussion of temporal news and the sensational, as opposed to business facts and analysis. Like a fleshed out Neisbitt text of glittering generalities.The strengths of this book are in interpreting and extended discussion on the how's and why's socialism with Chinese characteristics work as it does. When the Western press lays down emotionally charged words of democracy, free market, entrepreneur, etc, these concepts need careful explanations on what, exactly, this means in the Chinese context and the surrounding business milieu. These explanations, implications, and why they are so, as the reader will discover is quite different from straight Western interpretations.The first half of the book deals with China history since Mao after WWII. Then Deng's Opening in Chap 2, p47 there is a 2-page discussion on Overseas Ethnic Chinese and their investment into the homeland in the Shenzhen SEZ. On p127, the authors agree that a "Greater China" exists including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the OEChinese business dominated ASEAN countries all cooperating. In Chap 8, they discuss the enormity of the State-Owned-Enterprises which are largely non-performing by western standards, but who employ over 70% of the domestic urban workforce of 170 million people. Many SOEs are producing obsolete products, with a featherbedded workforce, that have been superceded by a market economy in other sectors. The new Premiers Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji appear serious in slowly reforming the SOEs, the bedrock of the socialist empire.The second half of the book deals with China's problems and issues, starting with Chap 8. Most Western press criticize the apparent lack of responsibility from leaders on these issues, SOEs, banks, SOL, SSI, etc. The authors, in contrast, evaluate this criticism in context of the larger whole and cite how deliberate progress is being made. As illustrated by three entrepreneurial case studies in Part III covering 30 pages, Chinese entrepreneurship is fostered by the Politburo as an experiment to help shore up the SOE profitability. So-called capitalism with Chinese characteristics is fostered in order to quickly develop real estate, along with large OEChinese capital infusions, so that there are suitable industrial parks (SEZ) to attract foreign investment to setup hi-tech manufacturing. The Politburo then covets corporate America with deep pockets in order to gather hard curren

Excellent review of the present and probable future of China

This book does what it sets out to do admirably well, although the reaction of certain readers makes it clear that its approach is lacking in certain areas.This book is a comprehensive but well-focused review of the current political and economic system of China, recent trends in US-China relationship, and the emerging currents in Chinese society that will shape the country in the next quarter century. The book is written primarily from a business perspective, focusing on China's economic and market potentials (forecasted to match the US in total GDP by the 2020's though still much poorer in per capita terms) and the impact of political developments on the business environment. For those readers not yet familiar with contemporary China, this book is a remarkably well-informed primer. But even old China-hands will find the authors' detailed discussion of the probable future of China (some 100 pages are devoted to the section titled "Geomancing the Dragon") thought-provoking even if their own conclusions may vary.However, the authors sought to instruct as well as inform. And their recommendations for improving US-China relationship - although perfectly sensible - may not persuade the human rights hawks in the US, who may consider arguments on strictly mercantilist terms immoral. But it's no accident that most of those intimately familiar with China are "pro-China" in the sense defined by a previous reviewer. China has plenty of human rights problems, but it has also come a remarkably long way in a amazingly short time. Progress cannot be measured without the context of history, and it's this area that did not receive sufficient treatment. The general normalcy of China today is an accomplishment that cannot be adequately appreciated without greater understanding of 20th century Chinese history.There are issues of fundamental human rights and there are issues of political organization. While one is certainly entitled to avidly avocate the political system of his or her choice, one should refrain from waging moral crusades when we are all equally human and fallible.

A Realistic Perspective of China Today

Another one of my highly recommended books is Big Dragon: What it means for Business, the Economy, and the Global Order. Overall, the authors have a good comprehension of China's economic and political structure. However, Big Dragon has one important omission. Although the authors casually mention the economic impact of FDI on China by overseas Chinese, I would have devoted at least one entire chapter to the subject. In fact, the vast majority of foreign investment continues to flow from overseas ethnic Chinese around the world (over 80% of FDI). Along with Taiwan, there are significant ethnic Chinese communities across Southeast Asia. Inspite of the war of words, Taiwan has over $40 billion and growing invested in China. The chances of a hot war between China and Taiwan are minimal. The overseas Chinese FDI permeates throughout China's economy in almost every sector including agriculture, biotech, services, high tech manufacturing, etc. Many Chinese officials that I have spoken to would disagree, but I would argue that China's economic renaissance can primarily be attributed to the skills, technology, and capital provided by the overseas ethnic Chinese across East Asia. The growing informal structural ties between the Chinese communities across East Asia and China illustrate the development of a Greater China with Beijing at its core. China's current government is similar in many respects to the earlier dictatorships of the Park regime in South Korea or the Chiang regime in Taiwan.

a book to enlighten the ignorant Americans & Europeans.

It's been estimated that only 4% of Americans can tell the difference between People's Republic of China & Republic of China. (one of them is Taiwan). only 16% of them know Jiangzemin & Deng XiaoPing are the leaders of China. I've personally known quite a few Americans who think Hong Kong is part of Japan. Yet, they have been brainwashed by the western mass media about the image of China, they think they know China well, whenever a Chinese leader goes to Europe or US, they always raise the free Tibet signs. In this book, the writer, despite being an American , is able to help to point out the common misconception of China.I agree 200% with what the author says. the writer is right to point out that China has always been peaceful, in late 19th century The Western powers all came here to China to get a slice of cake from the then weak Qing Dynasty. Britain sold us opium, took Hong Kong by force, (some looted National treasure from the Qing Dynasty is still on display in the British Museum. 4 of them were even sold back to China for billions the other week.), Japanese did the nanking massacre, France looted Vietnam, Spain took Phillipine, various inland of China was "rent" to Portugal, Germany, Austria, America, Russia, Italy...etc . Now, when the Communist party took back Tibet which was part of china during Qing & Yuan dynasty, those westerners robbers now get the thick face to tell China to free Tibet and respect human right? If you are Europeans, you'll definitely find this enlightening book. The author tells the fact.The author also point out that China was centuries ahead of Spaniards and British in exploring the oceans, we were the first one to land in Mexico, but we were peaceful and never took other's land, it's the Westerners who did the expansion. Now, China have every reason to expand the army for self defense, this single act make the guilty/sneaky Westerners nervous. The author also show his confidence in China's peaceful nature.Another great point the author made is on Hong Kong's return to China Once I met an American woman who told me that she's worried about the future of Hong Kong. she said that so proudly, as if we Hong Kongist all need their help. In this book, the writer dymistified this myth. Western robbers now say China is not democratic enough and will keep watching China's behavior to protect us the Hong Kongist. What they don't know is that Hong Kong has been ruled by several tens of governor of Britain, and only one Primier or Queen was responsible for choosing them, the current Chief Executive of Hong Kong Tung Chee Wah was chosen by several hundreds of people in Chinese government, and now the Westerners think that this is the end of Hong Kong's democracy. the last Governor of Hong Kong did made lot of democratic reform in his final 2 years, China of course have no reason to take that "tradition". I've always known this fact, but in this book, it's logically organised to f